Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
New York → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 28%
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15:25 LGA → 17:20 ORDUA 1504 · United · 2h 55m · 61% on time, 4.9% cancelled
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1h 00m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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18:20 ORD → 21:18 SFOUA 2179 · United · 4h 58m · 48% on time, 1.2% cancelled
Total trip 8h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (4.9% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip8h 53mLGA 15:25 to SFO 21:18, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.