tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Louisville via Newark: arrives on time 29%

  1. 13:41 DEN → 19:35 EWR
    UA 1505 · United · 3h 54m · 70% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 EWR → 22:50 SDF
    UA 3512 · United, flown by Republic · 2h 25m · 56% on time, 13.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 2 h ahead of Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (13.5% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip7h 09mDEN 13:41 to SDF 22:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.