tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → St Louis via Chicago: arrives on time 27%

  1. 15:16 MSP → 16:58 ORD
    UA 1531 · United · 1h 42m · 55% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:55 ORD → 19:23 STL
    UA 4412 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 28m · 56% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip4h 07mMSP 15:16 to STL 19:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.