tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Madison via Chicago: arrives on time 13%

  1. 15:16 MSP → 16:58 ORD
    UA 1531 · United · 1h 42m · 55% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:45 ORD → 18:57 MSN
    UA 4740 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 12m · 50% on time, 9.7% cancelled

Total trip 3h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection29%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 71% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (29%) × second flight not cancelled (9.7% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip3h 41mMSP 15:16 to MSN 18:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.