tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Providence via Chicago: arrives on time 27%

  1. 15:16 MSP → 16:58 ORD
    UA 1531 · United · 1h 42m · 55% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:50 ORD → 21:33 PVD
    UA 5442 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 43m · 74% on time, 8.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (8.1% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 17mMSP 15:16 to PVD 21:33, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.