tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Asheville via Chicago: arrives on time 16%

  1. 15:16 MSP → 16:58 ORD
    UA 1531 · United · 1h 42m · 55% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:45 ORD → 20:50 AVL
    UA 5663 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 05m · 57% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection29%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 71% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (29%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip4h 34mMSP 15:16 to AVL 20:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.