tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Buffalo via Chicago: arrives on time 44%

  1. 15:16 MSP → 16:58 ORD
    UA 1531 · United · 1h 42m · 55% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 19m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:17 ORD → 21:08 BUF
    UA 5763 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 51m · 62% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 34 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 19m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip4h 52mMSP 15:16 to BUF 21:08, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.