tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Grand Rapids via Chicago: arrives on time 23%

  1. 15:16 MSP → 16:58 ORD
    UA 1531 · United · 1h 42m · 55% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:02 ORD → 20:12 GRR
    UA 1178 · United · 1h 10m · 41% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 3h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Rapids is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip3h 56mMSP 15:16 to GRR 20:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.