tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 33%

  1. 15:16 MSP → 16:58 ORD
    UA 1531 · United · 1h 42m · 55% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:59 ORD → 21:19 PHL
    UA 1776 · United · 2h 20m · 61% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip5h 03mMSP 15:16 to PHL 21:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.