tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Dulles via Chicago: arrives on time 39%

  1. 15:16 MSP → 16:58 ORD
    UA 1531 · United · 1h 42m · 55% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 14m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:12 ORD → 21:22 IAD
    UA 2202 · United · 2h 10m · 57% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 29 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 14m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 06mMSP 15:16 to IAD 21:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.