tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Nashville via Chicago: arrives on time 33%

  1. 15:16 MSP → 16:58 ORD
    UA 1531 · United · 1h 42m · 55% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:58 ORD → 19:44 BNA
    UA 2784 · United · 1h 46m · 63% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip4h 28mMSP 15:16 to BNA 19:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.