tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Detroit via Chicago: arrives on time 35%

  1. 17:47 DFW → 20:30 ORD
    UA 1564 · United · 2h 43m · 60% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:20 ORD → 23:54 DTW
    UA 3475 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 34m · 76% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Times are local. Both flew on 21 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip5h 07mDFW 17:47 to DTW 23:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.