Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Phoenix via San Francisco: arrives on time 5%

  1. 07:00 SEA → 09:18 SFO
    UA 1578 · United · 2h 18m · 11% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:05 SFO → 12:14 PHX
    UA 500 · United · 2h 09m · 72% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection7%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 93% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time5%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (7%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 14mSEA 07:00 to PHX 12:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.