tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Rapid City via Denver: arrives on time 35%

  1. 13:31 PHX → 16:27 DEN
    UA 1615 · United · 1h 56m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 4h 43m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:10 DEN → 22:25 RAP
    UA 2781 · United · 1h 15m · 37% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 238 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 4h 43m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (37%).
Total trip7h 54mPHX 13:31 to RAP 22:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.