tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Sioux Falls via Denver: arrives on time 58%

  1. 13:31 PHX → 16:27 DEN
    UA 1615 · United · 1h 56m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:28 DEN → 20:08 FSD
    UA 645 · United · 1h 40m · 78% on time, 1.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sioux Falls is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip4h 37mPHX 13:31 to FSD 20:08, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.