tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 38%

  1. 15:37 AUS → 18:39 ORD
    UA 1625 · United · 3h 02m · 68% on time, 2.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 ORD → 22:54 DCA
    UA 2160 · United · 2h 09m · 56% on time, 5.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (2.6% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (5.0% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip6h 17mAUS 15:37 to DCA 22:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.