tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Sacramento via Newark: arrives on time 44%

  1. 14:37 MCO → 17:30 EWR
    UA 1643 · United · 2h 53m · 74% on time, 4.5% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:19 EWR → 21:48 SMF
    UA 2624 · United · 6h 29m · 74% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 10h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Orlando). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (4.5% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip10h 11mMCO 14:37 to SMF 21:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.