tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Rapid City via Chicago: arrives on time 39%

  1. 14:45 PHX → 20:27 ORD
    UA 1686 · United · 3h 42m · 61% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 ORD → 23:16 RAP
    UA 5331 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 46m · 66% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip7h 31mPHX 14:45 to RAP 23:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.