Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Phoenix → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 35%
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14:45 PHX → 20:27 ORDUA 1686 · United · 3h 42m · 61% on time, 0.5% cancelled
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1h 01m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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21:28 ORD → 23:10 MSPUA 1131 · United · 1h 42m · 59% on time, 2.9% cancelled
Total trip 6h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip6h 25mPHX 14:45 to MSP 23:10, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.