Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Phoenix → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 42%
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14:45 PHX → 20:27 ORDUA 1686 · United · 3h 42m · 61% on time, 0.5% cancelled
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1h 03m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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21:30 ORD → 00:53 EWR +1 dayUA 1209 · United · 2h 23m · 68% on time, 3.8% cancelled
Total trip 7h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip7h 08mPHX 14:45 to EWR 00:53, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.