tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Des Moines via Chicago: arrives on time 33%

  1. 14:45 PHX → 20:27 ORD
    UA 1686 · United · 3h 42m · 61% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:25 ORD → 22:56 DSM
    UA 1839 · United · 1h 31m · 60% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip6h 11mPHX 14:45 to DSM 22:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.