tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Sioux Falls via Chicago: arrives on time 37%

  1. 14:45 PHX → 20:27 ORD
    UA 1686 · United · 3h 42m · 61% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 ORD → 23:31 FSD
    UA 1842 · United · 2h 01m · 60% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sioux Falls is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip6h 46mPHX 14:45 to FSD 23:31, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.