tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Pittsburgh via Chicago: arrives on time 37%

  1. 14:45 PHX → 20:27 ORD
    UA 1686 · United · 3h 42m · 61% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:20 ORD → 23:59 PIT
    UA 3464 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 39m · 80% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip6h 14mPHX 14:45 to PIT 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.