Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Phoenix → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 37%
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14:45 PHX → 20:27 ORDUA 1686 · United · 3h 42m · 61% on time, 0.5% cancelled
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58m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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21:25 ORD → 23:59 SDFUA 3659 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 34m · 73% on time, 11.1% cancelled
Total trip 6h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip6h 14mPHX 14:45 to SDF 23:59, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.