tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Memphis via Newark: arrives on time 37%

  1. 12:35 LAS → 20:40 EWR
    UA 1731 · United · 5h 05m · 74% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:26 EWR → 23:30 MEM
    UA 3563 · United, flown by Republic · 3h 04m · 79% on time, 15.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (15.3% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip8h 55mLAS 12:35 to MEM 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.