Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Bozeman → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 30%
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16:24 BZN → 20:40 ORDUA 1744 · United · 3h 16m · 66% on time, 1.4% cancelled
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48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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21:28 ORD → 23:10 MSPUA 1131 · United · 1h 42m · 59% on time, 2.9% cancelled
Total trip 5h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Bozeman). Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 46mBZN 16:24 to MSP 23:10, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.