Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Phoenix → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 54%
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11:12 PHX → 16:54 ORDUA 1748 · United · 3h 42m · 78% on time, 1.2% cancelled
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56m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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17:50 ORD → 20:23 SDFUA 3598 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 33m · 77% on time, 4.0% cancelled
Total trip 6h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip6h 11mPHX 11:12 to SDF 20:23, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.