tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Hartford → Detroit via Dulles: arrives on time 38%

  1. 15:02 BDL → 16:35 IAD
    UA 1764 · United · 1h 33m · 73% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:22 IAD → 19:02 DTW
    UA 6246 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 40m · 78% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip4h 00mBDL 15:02 to DTW 19:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.