tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 70%

  1. 06:20 ROC → 07:28 ORD
    UA 1778 · United · 2h 08m · 81% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 3h 23m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 10:51 ORD → 14:30 JFK
    AA 4350 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 39m · 85% on time, 10.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 113 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 23m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (10.0% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip8h 10mROC 06:20 to JFK 14:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.