tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Phoenix via Newark: arrives on time 41%

  1. 17:42 IAD → 19:10 EWR
    UA 1831 · United · 1h 28m · 59% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 14m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:24 EWR → 22:46 PHX
    UA 1814 · United · 5h 22m · 65% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 29 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 14m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip8h 04mIAD 17:42 to PHX 22:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.