Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Louisville via Newark: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:42 IAD → 19:10 EWR
    UA 1831 · United · 1h 28m · 59% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 EWR → 22:50 SDF
    UA 3512 · United, flown by Republic · 2h 25m · 56% on time, 13.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (13.5% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 08mIAD 17:42 to SDF 22:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.