tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Dulles via Newark: arrives on time 46%

  1. 10:51 ORD → 14:17 EWR
    UA 1856 · United · 2h 26m · 80% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:08 EWR → 16:32 IAD
    UA 1992 · United · 1h 24m · 68% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 41mORD 10:51 to IAD 16:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.