tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Tampa via Newark: arrives on time 51%

  1. 10:51 ORD → 14:17 EWR
    UA 1856 · United · 2h 26m · 80% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:07 EWR → 18:07 TPA
    UA 2777 · United · 3h 00m · 77% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip6h 16mORD 10:51 to TPA 18:07, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.