tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Seattle via San Francisco: arrives on time 43%

  1. 17:29 DTW → 19:40 SFO
    UA 1863 · United · 5h 11m · 61% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 14m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:54 SFO → 23:19 SEA
    UA 1007 · United · 2h 25m · 66% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 29 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 14m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip8h 50mDTW 17:29 to SEA 23:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.