tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Las Vegas via San Francisco: arrives on time 53%

  1. 17:29 DTW → 19:40 SFO
    UA 1863 · United · 5h 11m · 61% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 35m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:15 SFO → 23:10 LAS
    UA 406 · United · 1h 55m · 77% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 50 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 35m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip8h 41mDTW 17:29 to LAS 23:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.