tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Phoenix via Denver: arrives on time 80%

  1. 10:13 IAD → 12:05 DEN
    UA 1865 · United · 3h 52m · 93% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 30m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:35 DEN → 16:35 PHX
    UA 1254 · United · 2h 00m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 22m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 165 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 30m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip9h 22mIAD 10:13 to PHX 16:35, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.