tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Tampa via Dulles: arrives on time 72%

  1. 08:50 PHX → 16:17 IAD
    UA 1873 · United · 4h 27m · 92% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 43m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 IAD → 20:39 TPA
    UA 1140 · United · 2h 39m · 75% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 58 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 43m layover.
Arrives on time72%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip8h 49mPHX 08:50 to TPA 20:39, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.