Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Nashville → Sacramento via Chicago: arrives on time 24%
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16:59 BNA → 19:00 ORDUA 1884 · United · 2h 01m · 57% on time, 2.9% cancelled
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53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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19:53 ORD → 22:37 SMFUA 1828 · United · 4h 44m · 62% on time, 3.8% cancelled
Total trip 7h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip7h 38mBNA 16:59 to SMF 22:37, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.