tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → El Paso via Houston: arrives on time 53%

  1. 17:45 ORD → 20:50 IAH
    UA 1954 · United · 3h 05m · 77% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Houston (IAH) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:40 IAH → 22:44 ELP
    UA 4010 · United, flown by Mesa · 2h 04m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip5h 59mORD 17:45 to ELP 22:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.