tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → St Louis via Chicago: arrives on time 40%

  1. 12:30 MIA → 15:13 ORD
    UA 1983 · United · 3h 43m · 82% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:59 ORD → 17:27 STL
    UA 4416 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 28m · 63% on time, 3.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (3.9% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip5h 57mMIA 12:30 to STL 17:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.