tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Des Moines → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 60%

  1. 15:24 DSM → 17:03 ORD
    UA 1989 · United · 1h 39m · 67% on time, 6.2% cancelled
  2. 3h 27m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 ORD → 22:27 PHX
    UA 602 · United · 3h 57m · 70% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 9h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Des Moines). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 162 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 27m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (6.2% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip9h 03mDSM 15:24 to PHX 22:27, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.