tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Memphis via Chicago: arrives on time 32%

  1. 17:20 AUS → 20:21 ORD
    UA 1990 · United · 3h 01m · 60% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:20 ORD → 23:21 MEM
    UA 2317 · United · 2h 01m · 60% on time, 6.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (6.1% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip6h 01mAUS 17:20 to MEM 23:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.