tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Columbia via Dulles: arrives on time 42%

  1. 15:08 EWR → 16:32 IAD
    UA 1992 · United · 1h 24m · 68% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:21 IAD → 19:09 CAE
    UA 4364 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 1h 48m · 82% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip4h 01mEWR 15:08 to CAE 19:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.