tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Buffalo via Dulles: arrives on time 47%

  1. 15:08 EWR → 16:32 IAD
    UA 1992 · United · 1h 24m · 68% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:30 IAD → 19:03 BUF
    UA 4823 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 1h 33m · 76% on time, 4.1% cancelled

Total trip 3h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (4.1% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip3h 55mEWR 15:08 to BUF 19:03, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.