tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Hebron via Dulles: arrives on time 46%

  1. 15:08 EWR → 16:32 IAD
    UA 1992 · United · 1h 24m · 68% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:25 IAD → 19:08 CVG
    UA 4521 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 43m · 80% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip4h 00mEWR 15:08 to CVG 19:08, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.