tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Detroit via Dulles: arrives on time 40%

  1. 15:08 EWR → 16:32 IAD
    UA 1992 · United · 1h 24m · 68% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:22 IAD → 19:02 DTW
    UA 6246 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 40m · 78% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 3h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip3h 54mEWR 15:08 to DTW 19:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.