tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Raleigh/Durham via Dulles: arrives on time 43%

  1. 15:08 EWR → 16:32 IAD
    UA 1992 · United · 1h 24m · 68% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:30 IAD → 18:55 RDU
    UA 3624 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 25m · 71% on time, 4.9% cancelled

Total trip 3h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (4.9% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip3h 47mEWR 15:08 to RDU 18:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.