tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Rochester via Philadelphia: arrives on time 77%

  1. 07:15 ORD → 10:30 PHL
    UA 2038 · United · 2h 15m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 47m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 13:17 PHL → 14:48 ROC
    AA 5907 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 28m · 81% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rochester is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 77 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 47m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip6h 30mORD 07:15 to ROC 14:48, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.