tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Traverse City via Chicago: arrives on time 34%

  1. 13:00 EWR → 14:43 ORD
    UA 2053 · United · 2h 43m · 77% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:35 ORD → 17:57 TVC
    UA 5640 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 22m · 55% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip4h 57mEWR 13:00 to TVC 17:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.