tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 37%

  1. 17:52 ROC → 19:00 ORD
    UA 2059 · United · 2h 08m · 49% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:07 ORD → 23:39 EWR
    UA 759 · United · 2h 32m · 65% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip5h 47mROC 17:52 to EWR 23:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.